Severe flood risk is expected as intense weather patterns impact the central United States until Sunday.
Much-needed precipitation soaking significant regions of the central United States in the coming week will provide relief to areas that have faced drought since the fall. Nevertheless, this beneficial rainfall could also lead to severe flood risk in certain communities.
Intense Weather Patterns Ahead
A series of storms is set to bring multiple rounds of rain and thunderstorms as they move from Texas and the southern Great Plains toward the Ohio Valley and Northeast. The warm, moisture-laden air from the Gulf will interact with the residual cold air in the Northeast, resulting in snow and ice in that region, while severe thunderstorms will impact areas of the Plains and Mississippi Valley.
AccuWeather.com provides insights on the potential for severe flooding hazards.
Although there is a potential for significant rainfall and isolated flooding along this approximately 1,500-mile stretch, two main regions are anticipated to experience the most intense and prolonged precipitation at various intervals. A third flood-prone area will rely on the speed at which the river ice thaws.
Impact on Central US Regions
Immediate flood danger stretches from Missouri to West Virginia
A weather system will extend from the central part of the Mississippi Valley to the Ohio Valley from Tuesday through Thursday as a storm moves along a stationary front. Expected rainfall amounts will typically be between 1 and 4 inches, with a potential AccuWeather Local StormMax™ reaching up to 7 inches, indicating a severe flood risk.
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Storms Moving Toward Northeast
Numerous significant rivers across the central United States are currently experiencing levels considerably lower than normal due to prolonged drought and insufficient rainfall over the past months, yet they are expected to manage much of the runoff anticipated this week.
As of November 1, certain regions in the Ohio and middle Mississippi basins have experienced only around 50% of their typical historical rainfall levels.
AccuWeather forecasts a significant risk of severe flooding.
Drought Relief and Flood Concerns
The Ohio and Mississippi rivers are expected to see only minor to moderate increases in water levels. In contrast, smaller rivers and streams may rise quickly, resulting in localized flooding.
AccuWeather.com reports on the significant danger of severe flooding.
Severe flood threat extending from Texas to Arkansas beginning this weekend
Warning: High risk of severe flooding
Further south, several storms are expected to soak regions from central Texas to the Ozark Mountains in Arkansas and Missouri from Saturday through Tuesday. Rainfall amounts are likely to be between 3 and 6 inches, with some areas potentially receiving up to 1 foot.
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Although the rain may not come down all at once, successive showers will initially soak the soil, subsequently increasing runoff. This scenario is expected to lead to swift flooding in small streams and urban areas, as well as significant rises in some secondary rivers. Key regions of concern encompass the hardpan soil areas of central Texas, particularly the Hill Country, and the rugged landscapes of the Ozark Mountains.
AccuWeather.com provides insights on the potential for severe flooding hazards.
The threat of severe flooding due to ice jams in the Northeast is expected to rise as March progresses.
Further to the northeast, regions spanning parts of western and northern Pennsylvania to upstate New York and sections of central New England are experiencing heightened concerns over flooding as warmer temperatures lead to melting snow and rivers and streams blocked by ice.
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Prolonged periods of intense cold have led to the formation of thick ice on local waterways. While some of this ice is starting to break apart without significant issues, large ice sheets moving downstream can become lodged at bends or constricted areas in rivers, causing upstream flooding. This can be followed by rapid downstream flooding if the blockage unexpectedly gives way, increasing the severe flood risk.
Chilly air will persist over the northern part of the Northeast, reducing the risk of ice jams at the beginning of March. However, as the month continues and temperatures rise, the likelihood of severe flood risk will increase further north as the month progresses.
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