Severe flood risk is expected to persist alongside bouts of intense weather across the central United States until Sunday.
Much-needed precipitation soaking large areas of the central United States in the coming week will provide relief to regions that have faced drought since the fall. Nevertheless, this beneficial rainfall could also lead to severe flood risk in certain neighborhoods.
Impact of Intense Weather
A series of storms will bring multiple rounds of rain and thunderstorms as they move from Texas and the southern Great Plains toward the Ohio Valley and Northeast. Warm, moisture-laden air from the Gulf will collide with the remaining cold air in the Northeast, resulting in snow and ice in that region, while severe thunderstorms will impact areas of the Plains and Mississippi Valley.
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Although there is a potential for significant rainfall and isolated flooding along this approximately 1,500-mile stretch, two main regions are anticipated to experience the most intense and prolonged precipitation at different intervals. A third flood-prone area will rely on the speed at which the river ice thaws.
Upcoming Rainfall Benefits
Immediate flood danger stretches from Missouri to West Virginia
A weather system is expected to extend from the central Mississippi Valley to the Ohio Valley from Tuesday through Thursday as it moves along a stationary front. Anticipated rainfall amounts will typically be between 1 and 4 inches, with a potential maximum of 7 inches according to AccuWeather’s Local StormMax™.
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Storms Across the Central US
Numerous significant rivers in the central United States are currently at levels significantly lower than normal due to prolonged drought and insufficient rainfall over the past months, and they are expected to manage much of this week’s runoff effectively.
As of November 1, certain regions in the Ohio and middle Mississippi basins have experienced only around 50% of their typical average rainfall.
AccuWeather forecasts a significant risk of severe flooding.
Cold Air and Thunderstorms
The Ohio and Mississippi rivers are expected to see only minor to moderate increases in water levels. In contrast, smaller rivers and streams may rise quickly, resulting in localized flooding.
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Severe flood threat from Texas to Arkansas beginning this weekend
Advisory
Further to the south, numerous storms are set to soak regions from central Texas to the Ozark Mountains in Arkansas and Missouri from Saturday through Tuesday. Expected rainfall amounts will typically fall between 3 to 6 inches, with some areas potentially receiving up to 1 foot.
AccuWeather forecasts a significant threat of severe flooding.
Although the rain may not come down all at once, successive showers will initially soak the soil, subsequently increasing runoff. This scenario is expected to lead to swift flooding in small streams and urban areas, as well as significant rises in certain secondary rivers. Key regions of concern encompass the hardpan soil areas of central Texas, particularly the Hill Country, and the rugged landscapes of the Ozark Mountains.
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The potential for severe flood risk in the Northeast is expected to rise as March progresses.
Further to the northeast, regions spanning parts of western and northern Pennsylvania to upstate New York and sections of central New England are facing heightened flood risks as increasing temperatures lead to the melting of snow and the obstruction of rivers and streams by ice.
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Prolonged periods of intense cold have led to the formation of thick ice on local waterways. Some of this ice has started to break apart without significant issues. Nevertheless, when large ice sheets drift downstream, they can become lodged at bends or constricted areas in rivers, causing flooding upstream—followed by swift downstream flooding if the blockage suddenly releases, increasing the severe flood risk.
Chilly air will persist over the northern part of the Northeast, reducing the risk of ice jams at the start of March. However, as the month moves forward and temperatures rise, the potential for severe flood risk will grow further north as the month progresses.
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